According to KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, Apple set to rely on Intel as the exclusive supplier of LTE modems for all new iPhones launched in 2018, and that Intel can now meet Apple’s technical requirements and offers more competitive prices.
In November, Kuo expected that Intel to supply 70 percent of the modems with Qualcomm providing the remaining 30 percent of orders. However, the analyst does not rule out that Qualcomm returning to the supply chain, perhaps as concessions for these ongoing of legal battles with Qualcomm.
With Intel's latest XMM 7560 modem [PDF] supports both GSM and CDMA, suggesting Apple could release a single iPhone model that works across AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, as well as Sprint. Intel modems previously lacked CDMA, meaning that Apple could never fully ditch Qualcomm for all iPhone models.
We expect Intel to be the exclusive supplier of baseband chip for 2H18 new iPhone models, while Qualcomm may not have a share of the orders at all.
There's also a risk that Intel may not be ready for 5G networking as quickly as Qualcomm, which may also force Apple’s hand. The reliable analyst reiterated that LTE transmission speeds will increase significantly in new iPhone models released in the fall of 2018.
For Qualcomm to make up for the lost iPhone business, Kuo expects the chipmaker will be more aggressive in securing orders from Chinese smartphone manufacturers. However, he believes these Chinese companies don't want a monopolized market so Qualcomm's ability to gain market share in the country may be limited.
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