Jul 25, 2019

Kuo: New 16-Inch MacBook Pro With Scissor Keyboard Expected This Fall

Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is out with a new research report, which he expects the upcoming 16-inch MacBook Pro's keyboard will switch to a scissor mechanism instead of a butterfly mechanism, and Kuo claims that the Macs to be released in 2020 will also switch into a scissor keyboard instead of a butterfly design, which means that the keyboards will be more durable and will not be as likely to fail when heat, Staub and other tiny particles enter in.

We have revised our prediction that the keyboard of the 16-inch MacBook Prothat will launch in 4Q19 will feature the scissor mechanism instead of the butterfly mechanism. The refresh versions of other MacBook models in 2020 will change to adopt the scissor mechanism keyboard, too. We estimate that shipments of MacBook models that choose scissor mechanism keyboards will reach 400k, 10mn, and 16mnunits, respectively.
Kuo claims Apple's greater scissor keyboard requirements will indicate an average selling cost of $25 to $30 for the keyboard component, more than the overall ASP for this kind of keyboard, of $8 to $12.

Since 2015, Apple has been adopting a new Butterfly keyboard mechanism on all of its laptop lineups, however, issues with the new keyboard have emerged, such as unresponsive keys, dusty keyboard, etc. Although Apple has improved the keyboard over the course of time, the issues still remain, and it won't be fixed until the company decides to switch to new keyboard design.

Alongside this prediction, Kuo also believes that the adoption of Apple's Smart Keyboard will likely to see a boost in fall when iPadOS launches, thanks to the new system, iPad will become more productive than ever. The often-reliable analyst suggests that Smart Keyboard sales will reach 2 million this year and double to 4 million in 2020.

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